KANGAROO POLITICS
Welcome to the first edition!
What happens in the U.S, matters for Australia and the rest of the world.
Since George Washington swept the electoral college in 1789, every election has been labelled by pundits as the ‘most consequential election in our lifetimes’…. This one might actually live up to the hype:
💤 An incumbent President who will need to have a nap before he blows out the 81 candles on his next birthday cake
⚖️ A former President who is just as likely to be wearing an orange jumpsuit as a red tie by the time the debates roll around and a cacophany of the usual suspects
😲 There is even a Kennedy in the race!
….and we’re still 469 days out from the election.
US politics is complex, nuanced and bloody confusing.
Kangaroo Politics is here to help you get your head around it all and to translate why you should care.
Put together each week by political junkies who have worked in politics, media and advocacy in Australia and America, Kangaroo Politics is all you need to convince your mates that your knowledge of American politics extends beyond Jed Bartlett’s fictional presidency. 😉
We’ll keep you across what’s going on - and why it matters. None of the fluff, just the info you need to hop into any dinner party informed (without having to read The New Yorker from cover to cover. 😉)
Hit reply or drop me a note at [email protected] with questions you’d like answered in future newsletters. If this was sent to you by a mate, bounce over here to sign up. Let’s jump in!
WTF is happening in US Politics this week? 🧐
Back to the Future: Who’s who in the Republican Zoo
Octogenerian Outlook: Biden or Bust for the Dems?
What is on the line? Stakes in 2024
Back to the Future: The Republican Primary
The more things change, the more they stay the same…As the Republican Party turns its attention to who will take on President Biden in November 2024, the race is taking on a decidedly familiar tone.
Former President and future defendant Donald Trump leads the pack. Fresh off his latest indictment, the big question facing Trump is whether he will have the time or money to mount a strong campaign amidst the legal challenges coming his way.
Should the former President falter, many of his former sub-ordinates are ready to pounce on their old bosses misfortune.
Like Former Vice-President Mike Pence. He’s jostling hard to gain the top job, despite being disliked by pretty much everyone in the Republican party (including both those who support Trump and those who oppose him.)
Trump’s UN ambassador and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has thrown her hat into the ring as a sensible alternative to the chaos and dysfunction of recent history. My take - she’s far too boring for a base that has developed a taste for chaos.
Speaking of chaos - Chris Christie has jumped into the race - again - just like he did in 2016. Back then, he was all over the place, he went from Trump hater numero uno to Trump super-fan in mere weeks. Time will tell if his strategy is any different this time.
Notable candidates who don’t warrant a paragraph yet but are on the ‘why the hell not’ end of the spectrum include:
⏩️ The first black GOP Senator from the South in more than a century, Tim Scott of South Carolina
⏩️ Governor Doug Burgum from North Dakota (who I really hope doesn’t make top tier status because then I will have to figure out where North Dakota is.)
The one candidate preventing the 2024 season of Survivor: Republican Primaries from being a re-run of the much fabled 2016 season is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Most famous for picking a fight with Mickey Mouse over whether Disney paid enough tax, DeSantis has gotten some early traction as a challenger to Trump’s outlandish throne.
But as we all know…the tribe doesn’t vote on night one…for that we have to stick around for the next episode. Stay tuned.
Biden or bust for the Dems?
Despite 80 year old Joe Biden, literally, falling over himself to show the Democratic party that he might be a bit long in the tooth to be the party’s 2024 flag bearer, nobody credible has yet even winked or nodded at a potential candidacy (and no, Bobby Kennedy’s crazy vaccine-denial conspiracy theorist son doesn’t count.)
The Dems look to be throwing their lot in with the Octogenerian they know.
It is a ‘risky strategy’…but nobody other than Biden has shown any real indication they know how to appeal to the centrist base that likes to flirt with Trumpism and was an election determining constituency in swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan last time around.
So maybe, just maybe…moving the stairmaster elevator into the West Wing is worth the trouble after all….
2024: 469 days to go…
This is shaping up to be an election unlike any other...large swathes of both parties are at best unenthusiastic about their likely nominees.
Pollling back in march showed that less than 40% of registered voters thought Biden deserved re-election. Among those who are either Democrats or democrat-leaning independents, more than half said they would like to see a different nominee than Biden in 2024.
And while Trump has a clear lead among Replican candidates, he is expeted to face his THIRD(!) indictment in coming weeks and his legal woes will continue to distract his campaign right up to the first Tuesday in November 2024.
Both candidates are treading a well worn path on the national stage. Biden has been on the ballot in 5 of the last 10 Presidential elections and Trump is running for President for the third straight election.
Age, the rule of law and the jaded, cynical population are conspiring to make this a campaign where a lot can still happen so lucky you have Kangaroo Politics hitting your inbox every week to decipher it all!
Kangaroo Politics
Kangaroo politics just about sums me up. 🇦🇺 🦘🇺🇸
I’m an Aussie who used to work in politics. My entire life, I’ve been obsessed with politics of all kinds - especially the American system.
For the last dozen Presidential Campaigns, I was that guy at the the bar, coffee shop or dinner party chatting obsessively about the intricacies of the peculiar system that is how America chooses the ‘leader of the free world’.
As always, i’ll be watching the race up close and doing my nerdy thing of moving around the country for political tourism.
I’m excited to have the privilege to bring you a perspective on it all and to leave you confident discussing the difference between a primary and a caucus, or an Elephant and Donkey. 🫏🐘 (more on that next week!)
I’m new to this newsletter thing - so please hit reply and lmk what you think. What do you love/hate and how can I improve Kangaroo Politics? Genuinely love to hear from you - I read every reply.
See you next week.
Ryan