If not Biden then who?!
Kangaroo Politics is back!
It’s been a minute! ⏳
Kangaroo Politics is back from a short hiatus to once again put American politics in context for non-Americans.
Did a mate forward you this newsletter? Bounce over here to sign up.
Got a friend confused by US politics? Forward them Kangaroo Politics.
Got ideas for topics? Let us know: [email protected].
WTF is happening in US Politics this Week? 🧐
🤷🏽♀️🥈 Can the Veep step up if needed? We look at whether Vice-President Kamala Harris is ready to take the reins.
🙋🏻♀️🙋🏽🙋🏾♂️🙋🏼♀️ Best of the rest: If not Biden or Harris, who else is waiting in the wings for the Democrats?
🗳️ Explainer: Working on a campaign vs working in Government
Kamala Harris: Is she ready?
The Vice-Presidency is coveted more for it’s proximity to power than power itself.
FDR’s Veep John Garner infamously described the job as ‘not worth a warm bucket of piss’.
While it is true that the VP has little direct responsiblity, the authority comes from the position’s place as a ‘heartbeat away from the Presidency.’
When that heart resides in the chest of an 80 year old man…the preparedness of the VP to step up both as a candidate and as President is worth more attention than usual.
So what do we know about Vice President Kamala Harris.
We know that her political acumen has driven her from her all the way from a race for San Francisco District Attorney in 2003 when she beat the incumbent in a run-off to now as the first woman to occupy a role in the Executive Branch.
Because of that impressive run, she was touted as a future candidate for President as far back as 2008.
Yet, her actual performance as a candidate has never been particuarly impressive. In the 2020 race, when she was running against Joe Biden and others, her debate performances were described as lacklustre and her campaign infrastructure was riddled with infighting.
Since taking on the job itself, Harris has had small victories but has largely failed to resonate with the American public. Her polling numbers are lower than Biden’s and she is significantly less popular than any of her four predecessors as Vice-President.
Some of that can be attributed to politics becoming more partisan and the opportunity for a VP/Candidate-in-waiting to court the poltiical centre somewhat stifled.
Yet, the numbers will worry not only Harris and her team but the broader Democratic party.
By selecting Harris as his running mate and VP, Joe Biden made a bet that she was best placed to carry the torch forward when he leaves the stage.
Whether that is now or in four years, Harris needs to step up and show that she has what it takes to lead an increasingly divided nation into a new generation.
If not…others are ready to show that they can.
The best of the rest
It is a long shot but that doesn’t mean that there are not a whole swathe of Democrats quietly tilling the political field should an opportunity arise.
In the event that Biden does not run and gives a less than hearty endorsement to his Vice-President, there are three categories of democratic candidates who will be waiting in the wings to pounce.
Governors
Regular readers of Kangaroo Politics will know that Governors have a habit of turning into Presidential Candidates.
With 24 of the 50 sitting Governors currently Democrats, there are more than a few ambitous residents of Gubernatorial mansions eyeing the next rung on the political ladder.
Three to keep a close eye on are Gavin Newsom of California who has long been rumoured to be planning a Presidential Campaign in 2028 (or earlier), Gretchen Whitmer of Michgan who was on President Biden’s shortlist for VP in 2020 and Jared Polis of Colorado who has ridden the wave of urban migration that has turned Colorado from a reliably red state in the 1990s to a bastion of blue now.
All three would be expected to jump out of the blocks quickly if Biden doesn’t run. Newsom in particuar would be problematic for Vice President Harris given they both rely on the Californian Democratic party as their base.
Gavin Newsom (Top) & Jared Polis (Bottom)
Gretchen Whitmer
2020 Runners-Up
Most of the 26 candidates who ran against President Biden for the Democratic Nomination in 2020 have seen their political fortunes falter since. You can be sure that you will not see campaigns from the likes of former New York Mayor Bill de Blasio or former Secretary of the Navy Joe Sestak this time around.
It is also unlikely that we will see Billionaire’s Michael Bloomberg or Tom Steyer in this race and while the comedic factor would go up, we probably won’t see Andrew Yang or Tulsi Gabbard either.
Some of the stronger candidates like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have probably aged out of the contest, particuarly if Biden’s departure is prefaced around his age.
So that leaves two candidates from the massive field in 2020 to watch should Biden/Harris leave space for someone else.
The first is former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana and current Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigeg.
Buttigeg has used the three years since the last campaign well. Not only has he become a well-credentialled Cabinet Secretary (more impressive foundation than small town Mayor), he now has two children with his husband Chasten. Buttigeg continues to be a media star and looks well positioned for another run at the White House, either now or in four years time.
In contrast to Buttigeg, Amy Klobuchar’s potential candidacy has a bit of ‘now-or-never’ about it. The Minnesota Senator has continued her diligent work in the Senate since dropping out of the Presidential Race in 2020 and being shortlisted as a potential running mate before losing out to Harris.
With a mid-western charm and broad appeal to the kind of swing voters that will be vital to holding on to the White House after President Biden vacates the poltiical field, Klobuchar remains one to watch.
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigeg & Senator Amy Klobuchar
Senators with Momentum
In an ordinary cycle, the Senate is where we would be looking for ambitous types about to from an exploratory committee and jump into the race. However with so much uncertainty around the field, that is likley not the case this time.
A Senator has a lot to lose by launching into an unwinnable Presidential campaign, particuarly with an incumbent from their own party still in the White House and more credentialled candidates ready to go should that no longer be the case.
Most Senators will therefore sit this one out and keep their eye on the 2028 contest.
Two potential exceptions to that rule are Senators Mark Kelly and Raphael Warnock from Arizona and Georgia respectively.
Both are coming off somewhat remarkable wins in states that a Democrat needs to win and both are therefore riding a wave of momentum.
Kelly, a former Astronaut and the husband of shooting victim and former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, trounced his opponent in what was expected to be a tough re-election race in 2022 becoming the first Democrat to win a full term as Arizona Senator since 1962.
Warnock beat Heisman trophy (most prestigious college football award) winning football star Herschel Walker in the 2022 election and in the process delivered the Democrats a more comfortable 51-49 majority in the Senate.
The election victory was widely celebrated because it diluted the power of intransigent West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin and increased the likelihood of Joe Biden gaining some legislative victory in a divided congress.
Warnock is Georgia’s first black Senator and won a convincing victory by appealing to former Republican voters in the traditionally consverative state. In the process he showed that he has the skill to bring diverse constituencies together and potentially become the post-partisan candidate that Democrats have been looking for.
Astronaut Mark Kelly of Arizona
Rev. Warnock of Georgia
EXPLAINER: Governing vs Campaiging
Some of the best political minds in the country work in the White House.
That is not a partisan statement about the talents of the Biden staffers. It has been true of almost every Administration since Lincoln.
The best political minds are integral to getting someone from candidate to President and they usually don’t ride off into the sunset once the electoral job is done.
Instead, they often carve out valuable real estate inside the West Wing (the part of the White House where the President’s most important and trusted advisors have offices).
James Carville and George Stephanopoulos are brilliant political strategists widely credited with taking Bill Clinton from a vaguely known Southern Governor to the White House…. both worked in the White House.
Ted Sorenson and Ken O’Donnell (ably played by Kevin Costner in Thirteen Days) were just two of many who made the leap from Campaign to West Wing during the Kennedy era.
Kelly-Anne Conway and a raft of Donald Trump’s children moved back and forth between Trump Tower and 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue (the White House).
But why are these political geniuses restricted from walking and chewing gum at the same time.
Why can they only work for the election (or re-election) of their boss OR work for the administration.
That is because of something called the Hatch Act.
The Hatch Act specifically prohibits government employees from pursuing partisan political causes.
Passed in 1939, the law is designed to stop incumbent elected officials from using taxpayer dollars to advance the political fortunes of their side alone. Although the President and Vice President are exempt, their staffers are not.
In practice, it has meant that key staff must rotate between their prestigious Washington offices and the hard slog of the campaign trail, never carrying both torches simultaneously.
So, this campaign season…when you see a story about a white house staffer’s resignation. Look closer…likely, they have not gone far…it is just donors rather than taxpayers now paying their salary.
Last Bounce
Tonight (U.S time), the Republicans take to the stage again in another Primary debate. Like last time, Donald Trump has chosen to sit this one out.
Keep an 👀 out for the other candidates to take a more direct swing at Trump as the time for them to knock him off his front-runner perch starts to run out.
Forward this to a mate so they can sign up at www.kangaroopolitics.com