Special Edition
First Republican Debate is TODAY!
The race to be the Republican nominee for President officially gets underway tonight 🇺🇸
Candidates will take the stage in Milwaukee for the first of many expected debates and Kangaroo Politics is bringing you a special edition with what to expect…
In today’s edition:
🎤 First Republican Debate: What does each candidate need to do?
📚 Explainer: Presidential Primary Debates
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Republican Debates begin
There is still a long way to go until the 2024 Presidential Election.
Depending on your preferred unit of time, it is 63 weeks, 440 days, 10560 hours or 3520 viewings of Oppenheimer until Americans go to the polls to choose the next President.
Despite that, the debates officially get under way this week.
Tonight (in the US), eight Republican candidates will take the stage in Milwaukee to explain why they should be their party’s presidential candidate…or more likely why the other seven shouldn’t be.
In the 2020 Democratic debates, there were a total of 23 candidates on the debate stage at the beginning, attracting laughs, criticism and more than a few google searches of who the hell these people were.
The Republican party therefore set forth strict criteria about who does and does not qualify to appear on the stage.
To get an invite, candidates had to:
Be the preferred candidate of at least 1% of respondents in at least 3 national polls (or 1% in two national polls and a poll from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina).
Have received money from at least 40,000 different donors including at least 200 in each of 20 different states.
Sign a pledge agreeing to support the Republican nominee
The big news…Donald Trump will NOT be on stage for the debate.
He will say that is because he doesn’t want to give his challengers a chance to take a crack at him as the frontrunner.
It is likely also because he is unwilling to adhere to the third criteria of supporting the eventual Republican nominee (if it isn’t him).
Trump has instead recorded an interview with former Fox News firebrand Tucker Carlson that will air on X (formerly known as Twitter) at the SAME TIME as the official Republican debate.
As far as snubs go, this is a doozy. 🤦♂️
It is like refusing to eat the meat and vegetables that your mum has cooked you and instead sitting down opposite her with a Big Mac. 🍔
The list of people that Trump is pissing off with his move is long;
Republican party officials are livid
Fox News are annoyed (because it is not airing there)
Rivals are upset they won’t get to take a crack at the frontrunner
Trump loyalists think he is giving up a big stage to bash Biden.
While Trump won’t be on the stage, eight pretenders to his throne will be and they capture the state of the race as it stands.
Ron DeSantis has a chance to show he deserves to be the party’s flagbearer with the spotlight shining brightly on him in Trump’s absence…with his campaign flailing, is he up to it?
Mike Pence barely met the polling and donor requirements and must have a breakout moment to restart his stalling campaign…whether he can explain how he both supported Donald Trump as Vice-President and held him to account on January 6th will be interesting to see.
Nikki Haley must show that she can break free of her politically correct and safe persona in a way that encourages Trump voters to take a second look at the former UN Ambassador.
Chris Christie will be the firebrand of the evening and likely the only one willing to throw a direct political punch at Donald Trump. Watch the former New Jersey Governor closely, he could be the story of the night.
Tim Scott has at least a little bit of momentum on his side but with great power comes great responsibility. For some, it will be the first time they take a real look at him as a potential nominee…can he explain why he deserves a shot?
Vivek Ramaswamy is the only credible non-politician in the race and will be looking to bring some of that ‘real-world’ experience onto the first political debate stage he has been on.
He will have to begin by explaining who he is and how his business experience would translate to the most complex political job in the world.
Doug Burgum will be hoping that the expense was worth it all. He gave a twenty-dollar gift card anyone willing to donate a dollar to his campaign.
It meant he met the donor criteria to get on the debate stage but with that level of economic creativity, let’s hope he doesn’t end up as Treasury secretary.
Asa Hutchinson will be hoping that the moderator remembers his name and that he is allowed to take home the program as a souvenir of the time he ran for President.
Trump is making a calculation that none of the eight will be able to land a blow that attracts enough support or donors to make a run at his front-runner status.
Even if there is a showstopper moment, it likely won’t last long with speculation that Trump is expected to fly to Georgia and surrender to authorities on more charges…this time for trying to overturn the election result using mobster tactics.
In terms of excuses to miss the debate, getting arrested for racketeering and organized crime is decent.
EXPLAINER: Presidential Primary Debates
The debates that begin tonight are just the entrée. The main meal will come in September or October 2024 when the final nominees for both parties square off in a series of contests organized by the independent Commission on Presidential Debates.
But for now, we have the theatrics of intra-party mudslinging to look forward to, and let’s face it, that is far more interesting than the same old Democrat vs Republican talking points.
Since the first modern Presidential Primary debate was held in 1948 between New York Governor Thomas Dewey (eventual nominee and ultimate loser to Harry Truman) and former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen, there have been more than 200 primary debates during presidential contests.
Fun facts to note that across this 75-year history:
No incumbent President has ever participated in a primary debate…so Joe Biden can likely hit snooze on debate prep for a few more months.
Every non-incumbent party eventual nominee has appeared in at least one debate (although many frontrunners have skipped early debates like Trump is doing this time).
The number of primary debates has ranged between one (1948) and nineteen (2008 for Democrats and 2016 for Republicans) so there will be a lot more opportunities for candidates this cycle.
While the winner of the first primary debate does not always or even usually go on to the nomination, it is a big opportunity to get the kind of momentum that attracts money, support, and attention…the currency needed for a long campaign ahead.
Last Bounce
Next week we have a full slate with:
🧐 Post-game on tonight’s Republican debate
🤨 A look into the role that Vice President Kamala Harris will play in 2024….will she be a help or a hindrance?
👨🏻⚖️ Everything you need to know from the latest round of indictments
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Thanks
Ryan